Research
Company research, market analysis, and data-driven investigations produced with ARC.
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Cheap Capital, Expensive Execution
How Treasury’s ECIP gave tiny community banks more cheap capital than their market values—and why management execution determined what reached common shareholders.
banksspecial-situationscapital-allocationcase-study -
Total Soft Bank Is Still Cheap. The Cash Is Not a Floor
The Korean port-software company first appeared to trade at 2.4x operating profit with 60% cash coverage; a closer filing read leaves genuine value at 4.3x normalized profit, but no hard cash floor.
companykoreamaritime-softwarevaluation -
TaskUs: 3.8x EBITDA, but the Replacement Engine Is Unproven
TaskUs is growing outside Meta, but Q1 only proved that offsets exist before the Trust & Safety contraction—and replacement revenue is arriving faster than replacement profit.
companyai-disruptionoutsourcingvaluation -
SOOP: 5x Earnings, 58% Cash Coverage—and Still a Pass
SOOP's valuation is real, but a five-quarter decline in virtual-gift revenue cannot be reduced to temporary app-store friction.
companykorealive-streamingvaluation -
Hemnet Still Owns the Launch. It Is Losing What Comes Before
How Sweden's seller-paid, broker-controlled housing market built a dominant portal—and then made the pre-market increasingly valuable.
marketplacesreal-estatestrategy -
Who's getting f@?!'d by AI?
A read through the last few quarters of earnings calls for the companies admitting AI is cutting their revenue today — publishers gutted by Google's AI answers, IT-services firms baking "AI deflation" into guidance, call centers losing volume — and the far larger crowd denying all of it while switching to usage-based pricing anyway.
ai-disruptionearnings